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Panetta: Strike  could trigger Iranian retaliation against US forces  

Israel must resume peace talks - US

2011-12-03 09:27

Washington - US defence secretary Leon Panetta on Friday urged Israel to get back to the "damn" negotiating table with Palestinians and take steps to address what he described as the Jewish state's growing isolation in the Middle East.

Panetta, addressing a forum in Washington, also made one of his most extensive arguments to date against any imminent military action against Iran over its nuclear programme, saying he was convinced that sanctions and diplomatic pressure were working.

"You always have the last resort ... of military action. But it must be the last resort, not the first," Panetta said.

Militarily strong, Israel is battling a diplomatic storm as Arab uprisings upset once-stable relationships in the Middle East. But Panetta warned Israel against viewing uprisings like the one in Egypt that toppled president Hosni Mubarak as an excuse to enter a defensive crouch.

"I understand the view that this is not the time to pursue peace, and that the Arab awakening further imperils the dream of a safe and secure, Jewish and democratic Israel. But I disagree with that view," Panetta said.

Iran

Turning to Iran, Panetta used some of his strongest language yet to explain US concerns about any military strike against Iran over its nuclear programme - which the West believes is aimed at an atomic bomb. Tehran denies this, saying its uranium enrichment is entirely peaceful.

Panetta said a strike could

- disrupt the already fragile economies of Europe and the United States,

- trigger Iranian retaliation against US forces, and

- ultimately spark a popular backlash in Iran that would bolster its rulers.

It also may not be effective. Panetta cited estimates from Israelis that a strike might set back Iran's nuclear programme by one to two years "at best."

He finally warned about engulfing the region in war.

"Lastly I think the consequence could be that we would have an escalation that would take place that would not only involve many lives, but I think could consume the Middle East in confrontation and conflict that we would regret," he said.

Peace talks

He said Israel needed to take risks, including by breathing new life into moribund peace talks with Palestinians. When asked by a moderator what steps Israel needed to take to pursue peace, Panetta said: "Just get to the damn table."

"The problem right now is we can't get 'em to the damn table, to at least sit down and begin to discuss their differences," Panetta said.

Panetta said the United States would safeguard Israel's security, ensure regional stability and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon - a goal Tehran denies having.

"Israel, too, has a responsibility to pursue these shared goals - to build regional support for Israeli and United States' security objectives," Panetta said.

"I believe security is dependent on a strong military but it is also dependent on strong diplomacy. And unfortunately, over the past year, we've seen Israel's isolation from its traditional security partners in the region grow."

Panetta suggested that Israel reach out and mend fences with countries like Turkey, Egypt and Jordan which "share an interest in regional stability."

Turkey was the first Muslim state to recognise Israel, in 1949, but relations worsened last year when Israeli commandos boarded an aid flotilla challenging a naval blockade of the Palestinian enclave of Gaza and killing nine Turks in ensuing clashes.

"It is in Israel's interest, Turkey's interest, and US interest for Israel to reconcile with Turkey, and both Turkey and Israel need to do more to put their relationship back on track," Panetta said.

Israel is closely watching developments in Egypt, whose new rulers may be more susceptible to widespread anti-Israeli sentiment than under Mubarak.

Egyptians voted on Friday in the opening round of the country's first free election in six decades. The Muslim Brotherhood's party and its ultra-conservative Salafi rivals looked set to top the polls.

But Panetta said the best course for the United States and the international community was to continue to put pressure on Egypt to follow through with transition to democracy and ensure any future government stands by its peace treaty with Israel.

- Reuters

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/israeli-defense-chief-says-israel-not-seeking-to-attack-iran-but-may-have-no-choice/2011/12/01/gIQAk7P9FO_story.html

Israeli defense chief says Israel not seeking to attack Iran, but may have no choice

By Associated Press, Published: December 1

JERUSALEM — Israel does not want to take military action against Iran over its nuclear program, but at some point may have no other option, Israel’s defense minister said Thursday.

At this point, Israel does not intend to launch a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities but it retains the option as a “last resort,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Israel Radio.

“We don’t need unnecessary wars. But we definitely might be put to the test,” he said. “The non-diplomatic point is a last resort. The fact that all options are on the table is agreed upon by everybody.”

Barak said he hoped that sanctions and diplomacy would pressure the Iranian leadership to abandon its suspected nuclear weapons program, but said he does not expect that to happen.

Israel, like the West, suspects Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, despite Tehran’s insistence that its nuclear program is designed to produce energy.

Israel says a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten the Jewish state’s survival, citing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s repeated references to Israel’s destruction, Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and its support for militant groups that fight Israel.

The U.S. — as well as some security experts in Israel — have loudly opposed the prospect of an Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, because of its potential for touching off retaliation against Israel and a broader, regional conflagration.

But Barak suggested that Israel might not alert world powers before embarking on a strike.

“Israel is a sovereign state and it is the government of Israel, the Israeli army and security forces who are responsible for Israel’s security, future and survival,” he said.

Mysterious blasts, computer viruses and assassinations have disrupted Iran’s nuclear program, and there has been speculation of Israeli involvement.

Barak would not comment on that possibility, but said, “We are not happy to see the Iranians move ahead on this (program), so any delay, be it divine intervention or otherwise, is welcome.”

In an interview broadcast Thursday on Israeli TV, former Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan harshly criticized any plans to attack Iran.

Dagan, who recently retired from the spy agency, estimated that an Israeli attack would likely lead to a regional war in which Syria as well as Lebanese and Palestinian militants would get involved.

“I’m concerned about possible mistakes and I prefer to speak out before there is a catastrophe,” he said. “I think that engaging, with open eyes, in a regional war is warranted only when we are under attack or when the sword is already cutting against our live flesh. It is not an alternative that should be chosen lightly.”

Dagan said he believed the Iranians were not progressing as quickly as is widely believed and there was still plenty of time to stop them from acquiring the bomb.

A recent survey commissioned for the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution found Jewish-Israelis to be split almost evenly on a possible Israeli strike on Iran.

The Dahaf Institute poll found that 43 percent support an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities while 41 percent oppose it. Sixty-five percent of those surveyed also said they would prefer a nuclear-free region over one in which both Israel and Iran possessed nuclear weapons, while 19 percent favored the alternative.

Israel is widely believed to have nuclear capabilities.

The poll surveyed 510 randomly selected Jewish citizens of Israel earlier this month and had margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

In another reflection of Israeli concerns over Iran, the Israeli military said Thursday that it has launched a project to teach Farsi, the dominant language in Iran, to Israeli high school students in hopes of preparing them for careers in military intelligence.

An intelligence official said a select group of 23 honors students had been carefully chosen to participate in the three-year course. An intelligence commander in uniform comes to their school to teach the course, and soldiers from the intelligence unit help them with homework.

“The need for Persian instruction is obvious,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with army protocol.

A few dozen high-school students graduated this year from a similar pilot course in high-level Arabic. Most of them subsequently enlisted into Israel’s military intelligence, the official said.

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